Do New Year's resolutions work? Yes, more than you have been told

Do New Year's resolutions actually work?

Yes, and the best available comparison is more encouraging than the folklore. Norcross and colleagues followed 159 New Year's resolvers and 123 people who wanted to change a problem but were not resolving, for six months.

At six months, 46 percent of the resolvers were continuously successful. Among the non-resolvers, who wanted the same changes, 4 percent were.

The two groups did not differ in demographics, problem history, or the goals themselves, which were mostly weight loss, exercise and quitting smoking. The difference was the resolution.

Where the 8 percent figure comes from

Nowhere identifiable, which is worth knowing before you repeat it.

The claim that only 8 percent of resolutions succeed circulates endlessly, usually attributed to a university study with no citation attached. It does not correspond to the peer-reviewed literature on resolvers, which reports far higher continuous success at six months and around 19 percent still holding at two years.

The same goes for Quitters' Day, the mid-January date when resolutions supposedly collapse. That comes from a fitness company's own user data, published as marketing. It might describe their users. It is not research.

None of this means resolutions are easy. Most do fail eventually. It means the number people quote to prove it is made up.

Why January genuinely helps

Because a date that feels like a fresh start really does change behaviour, and this part is measured.

Researchers found that Google searches for diet, gym visits, and commitments to pursue goals all rise after temporal landmarks: the start of a week, a month, a year, a semester, a birthday, a holiday.

The proposed reason is that these landmarks break time into chapters. They put your past failures in the previous chapter and let you take a big-picture view of your life, which makes aspirational behaviour easier to start.

That is a real advantage and it is free. The catch is that it is a starting advantage only. A landmark helps you begin and does nothing for you in the third week of February.

How to make one that survives February

Use the fresh start to begin, then rely on structure rather than on the feeling.

1. 1

   Make it countable with a date

   Read 24 books by 31 December beats read more. If you cannot log it, you cannot tell whether it is working. See SMART goals.

2. 2

   Pick one

   The successful resolvers in the research were not the ones attempting five things. Five tracked goals become zero tracked goals by February.

3. 3

   Decide when and where the daily action happens

   Deciding the exact cue in advance had a medium to large effect across 94 tests. If-then plans take one sentence.

4. 4

   Track it somewhere you will see

   Monitoring progress raises attainment, more so when it is physically recorded. A tracker you have to remember to open is not doing that job.

5. 5

   Plan for the miss before it happens

   You will miss days. Deciding in advance that a miss is a zero and not a reset is the difference between a dip and an abandonment.

You do not have to wait for January

The fresh start effect works on any landmark, and there are dozens a year.

The start of a month, the start of a week, a birthday, the first day back after a holiday, the start of a term. All of them showed the same lift in the research. Monday is a fresh start that arrives 52 times a year.

This matters because the most common reason people give for not starting is that it is a bad time. There is a landmark within the next seven days, always. A 30 day challenge starting next Monday works exactly as well as one starting on 1 January.

Frequently asked questions

What percentage of New Year's resolutions fail?

It depends entirely on the window. In the best-known follow-up study, 46 percent of resolvers were continuously successful at six months, compared with 4 percent of non-resolvers who wanted the same changes. Long-term success is much lower, but the commonly quoted 8 percent figure has no identifiable source.

Is it true that most people quit by mid-January?

That claim comes from a fitness company's marketing analysis of its own users, not from research. It may describe their app's usage. It is not a general finding.

Do resolutions work better than just deciding to change?

In the Norcross study, substantially. Resolvers succeeded at 46 percent versus 4 percent for people with the same goals who did not make a resolution, despite no difference in demographics or problem history.

When is the best time to start a goal?

Any temporal landmark. Research found the same lift after the start of a week, month, year or semester, and after birthdays and holidays. The next Monday works. Waiting for January is not required.